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Table 4 Comparison of predictive performance in receiver operating characteristic analysis

From: Development of a heart rate variability and complexity model in predicting the need for life-saving interventions amongst trauma patients

 

HRV/HRC model

T-RTS

MEWS

M-GAP

GAP

GCS

Heart rate

GCS + heart rate

Cut-off

0.18

12

2

27

22

15

84.5

0.18

AUC (95% CI)

0.75 (0.66–0.83)

0.62 (0.53–0.71)

0.69 (0.60–0.78)

0.64 (0.55–0.73)

0.61 (0.52–0.70)

0.39 (0.29–0.48)

0.61 (0.52–0.71)

0.65 (0.56–0.75)

Sensitivity %, (95% CI)

79.6% (68.3–90.9)

28.6% (15.9–41.2)

26.5% (14.2–38.9)

55.1% (41.2–69.0)

38.8% (25.1–52.4)

65.3% (58.9–78.2)

63.3% (48.3–76.6)

57.1% (42.2–71.2)

Specificity %, (95% CI)

63.1% (55.9–70.2)

94.3% (90.9–97.7)

96.6% (93.9–99.3)

61.4% (54.2–68.6)

68.2% (61.3–75.1)

14.9% (11.3–21.9)

51.0% (42.9–58.2)

61.0% (52.6–67.5)

PPV %, (95% CI)

37.5% (28.2–46.8)

58.3% (38.6–78.1)

68.4% (47.5–89.3)

28.4% (19.4–37.5)

25.3% (15.5–35.2)

38.6% (27.3–51.4)

26.3% (21.5–31.6)

28.6% (22.8–35.1)

NPV %, (95% CI)

91.7% (86.8–96.6)

82.6% (77.3–87.8)

82.5% (77.3–87.7)

83.1% (76.6–89.5)

80.0% (73.6–86.4)

82.3% (79.0–85.2)

83.2% (76.9–88.0)

83.5% (78.1–87.7)

  1. HRV heart rate variability, HRC heart rate complexity, T-RTS Triage Revised Trauma Score, MEWS Modified Early Warning System, M-GAP Mechanism of injury, Glasgow Coma Scale, Age and Arterial blood pressure, GAP Glasgow coma scale, Age and Systolic blood pressure, AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, GCS Glasgow Coma Scale